--- title: Identify the principal error in the assertion that tails is "due" af… — "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy · tree and pragmatics description: Identify the principal error in the assertion that tails is "due" after five consecutive heads with a fair coin. Exam question 1 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, with the dependency tree and pragmatics of the question and of each op --- [Mova](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) · [this page in HTML](https://mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e1/) [home](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) / [corpora](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/) / [questions](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/) / [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/) / ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/) / e1 # Exam question 1 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy Identify the principal error in the assertion that tails is "due" after five consecutive heads with a fair coin. **Mova's choice:** option 3 · **The right answer:** option 3 · right ✓ · **Who acts:** you, assertion · **What happens:** identify, be · **To what, where:** principal error, assertion This is exam question 1 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, asked in stiff, formal language. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: [the test at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/#e1). ## The question {#question} ```conllu # sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e1:1 # text = Identify the principal error in the assertion that tails is "due" after five consecutive heads with a fair coin. 1 Identify identify VERB VB Mood=Imp|VerbForm=Fin 0 root _ _ 2 the the DET DT Definite=Def|PronType=Art 4 det _ _ 3 principal principal ADJ JJ Degree=Pos 4 amod _ _ 4 error error NOUN NN Number=Sing 1 obj _ _ 5 in in ADP IN _ 7 case _ _ 6 the the DET DT Definite=Def|PronType=Art 7 det _ _ 7 assertion assertion NOUN NN Number=Sing 1 obl _ _ 8 that that PRON WDT PronType=Rel 12 nsubj _ _ 9 tails tail NOUN NNS Number=Plur 12 nsubj _ _ 10 is be AUX VBZ Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin 12 cop _ _ 11 " " PUNCT `` _ 12 punct _ SpaceAfter=No 12 due due ADJ JJ Degree=Pos|ExtPos=ADP 7 acl:relcl _ SpaceAfter=No 13 " " PUNCT '' _ 12 punct _ _ 14 after after ADP IN _ 17 case _ _ 15 five five NUM CD NumForm=Word|NumType=Card 17 nummod _ _ 16 consecutive consecutive ADJ JJ Degree=Pos 17 amod _ _ 17 heads head NOUN NNS Number=Plur 1 obl _ _ 18 with with ADP IN _ 21 case _ _ 19 a a DET DT Definite=Ind|PronType=Art 21 det _ _ 20 fair fair ADJ JJ Degree=Pos 21 amod _ _ 21 coin coin NOUN NN Number=Sing 1 obl _ SpaceAfter=No 22 . . PUNCT . _ 1 punct _ _ ``` | # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | **identify** | imperative | you *not said here* | the principal error | | the assertion | after five consecutive heads | with a fair coin | vn characterize-29.2-1-1 «NP V NP S\_ING»: agent=Agent error=Theme | | 2 | **is** *in a quote* | present | the assertion | | | | | due *property* | tree rules | One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree. ## The options {#options} ### Option 1 {#o1} The coin is likely to be weighted ```conllu # sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e1:o1:1 # text = The coin is likely to be weighted 1 The the DET DT Definite=Def|PronType=Art 2 det _ _ 2 coin coin NOUN NN Number=Sing 4 nsubj _ _ 3 is be AUX VBZ Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin 4 cop _ _ 4 likely likely ADJ JJ Degree=Pos 0 root _ _ 5 to to PART TO _ 7 mark _ _ 6 be be AUX VB VerbForm=Inf 7 aux:pass _ _ 7 weighted weight VERB VBN Tense=Past|VerbForm=Part|Voice=Pass 4 xcomp _ _ ``` | # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | **is** | present | the coin | | | | | likely *property* | tree rules | | 2 | **weight** | to-infinitive · passive | the coin *not said here* | | | | | | vn equip-13.4.2-1-1 «NP.theme V NP» | ### Option 2 {#o2} Five heads constitute an insufficient sample ```conllu # sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e1:o2:1 # text = Five heads constitute an insufficient sample 1 Five five NUM CD NumForm=Word|NumType=Card 2 nummod _ _ 2 heads head NOUN NNS Number=Plur 3 nsubj _ _ 3 constitute constitute VERB VBP Mood=Ind|Number=Plur|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin 0 root _ _ 4 an a DET DT Definite=Ind|PronType=Art 6 det _ _ 5 insufficient insufficient ADJ JJ Degree=Pos 6 amod _ _ 6 sample sample NOUN NN Number=Sing 3 obj _ _ ``` | # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | **constitute** | present | Five heads | a insufficient sample | | | | | vn comprise-107.2-1 «NP V NP»: agent=Theme sample=Pivot | ### Option 3 · ← Mova's choice · ✓ the right answer {#o3} The coin retains no memory of prior outcomes ```conllu # sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e1:o3:1 # text = The coin retains no memory of prior outcomes 1 The the DET DT Definite=Def|PronType=Art 2 det _ _ 2 coin coin NOUN NN Number=Sing 3 nsubj _ _ 3 retains retain VERB VBZ Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin 0 root _ _ 4 no no DET DT PronType=Neg 5 det _ _ 5 memory memory NOUN NN Number=Sing 3 obj _ _ 6 of of ADP IN _ 8 case _ _ 7 prior prior ADJ JJ Degree=Pos 8 amod _ _ 8 outcomes outcome NOUN NNS Number=Plur 5 nmod _ _ ``` | # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | **retain** | present | the coin | no memory of prior outcomes | | | | | tree rules | ### Option 4 {#o4} Tails cannot occur after heads ```conllu # sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e1:o4:1 # text = Tails cannot occur after heads 1 Tails tail NOUN NNS Number=Plur 4 nsubj _ _ 2 can can AUX MD VerbForm=Fin 4 aux _ SpaceAfter=No 3 not not PART RB Polarity=Neg 4 advmod _ _ 4 occur occur VERB VB VerbForm=Inf 0 root _ _ 5 after after ADP IN _ 6 case _ _ 6 heads head NOUN NNS Number=Plur 4 obl _ _ ``` | # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | **not** **occur** | can | Tails | | | | after heads | | vn occur-48.3-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme | **Text:** the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (`world/data/school/`), as the course runner gave them to the student. **Trees:** Mova's own parse — the `en` model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. **Frames:** Mova's frames reader (`prag`), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License. - ← previous: ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy, test 11](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t11/) - next →: ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy, exam 2](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e2/) - ↑ back to ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/)