---
title: Ascertain the probability of obtaining a six upon a single roll of a… — "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy · tree and pragmatics
description: Ascertain the probability of obtaining a six upon a single roll of a fair die, irrespective of prior rolls. Exam question 2 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, with the dependency tree and pragmatics of the question and of each option;
---

<!-- md -->
[Mova](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) · [this page in HTML](https://mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e2/)

<!-- crumbs -->
[home](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) / [corpora](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/) / [questions](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/) / [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/) / ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/) / e2

# Exam question 2 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Ascertain the probability of obtaining a six upon a single roll of a fair die, irrespective of prior rolls.

<!-- .vintro -->
**Mova's choice:** option 1 · **The right answer:** option 4 · wrong ✗ · **Who acts:** you, probability · **What happens:** ascertain, obtain, roll · **To what, where:** probability, six, fair die

<!-- .vabout -->
This is exam question 2 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, asked in stiff, formal language. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: [the test at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/#e2).

## The question {#question}

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e2:1
# text = Ascertain the probability of obtaining a six upon a single roll of a fair die, irrespective of prior rolls.
1	Ascertain	ascertain	VERB	VB	Mood=Imp|VerbForm=Fin	0	root	_	_
2	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	3	det	_	_
3	probability	probability	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	1	obj	_	_
4	of	of	SCONJ	IN	_	5	mark	_	_
5	obtaining	obtain	VERB	VBG	VerbForm=Ger	3	acl	_	_
6	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	7	det	_	_
7	six	six	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	5	obj	_	_
8	upon	upon	ADP	IN	_	11	case	_	_
9	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	11	det	_	_
10	single	single	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	11	amod	_	_
11	roll	roll	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	5	obl	_	_
12	of	of	ADP	IN	_	15	case	_	_
13	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	15	det	_	_
14	fair	fair	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	15	amod	_	_
15	die	die	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	11	nmod	_	SpaceAfter=No
16	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	20	punct	_	_
17	irrespective	irrespective	ADV	RB	_	20	advmod	_	_
18	of	of	ADP	IN	_	20	case	_	_
19	prior	prior	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	20	amod	_	_
20	rolls	roll	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	5	obl	_	SpaceAfter=No
21	.	.	PUNCT	.	_	1	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **ascertain** | imperative | you *not said here* | the probability |  |  |  |  | vn discover-84 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent probability=Topic |
| 2 | **obtain** | gerund | the probability *not said here* | a six |  |  |  | upon a single roll of a fair die; of prior rolls | vn obtain-13.5.2-1 «NP.asset V NP»: agent=Asset six=Theme |
| 3 | **roll** |  |  | a fair die |  |  |  |  | nom roll «event transitive»: of=patient |

<!-- .note -->
One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

## The options {#options}

### Option 1 · ← Mova's choice {#o1}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
One in two

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e2:o1:1
# text = One in two
1	One	one	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	0	root	_	_
2	in	in	ADP	IN	_	3	case	_	_
3	two	two	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	1	nmod	_	_
```

<!-- .note -->
The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

### Option 2 {#o2}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Six in six

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e2:o2:1
# text = Six in six
1	Six	six	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	0	root	_	_
2	in	in	ADP	IN	_	3	case	_	_
3	six	six	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	1	nmod	_	_
```

<!-- .note -->
The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

### Option 3 {#o3}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
One in thirty-six

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e2:o3:1
# text = One in thirty-six
1	One	one	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	0	root	_	_
2	in	in	ADP	IN	_	3	case	_	_
3	thirty	thirty	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	1	nmod	_	SpaceAfter=No
4	-	-	PUNCT	HYPH	_	5	punct	_	SpaceAfter=No
5	six	six	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	3	conj	_	_
```

<!-- .note -->
The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

### Option 4 · ✓ the right answer {#o4}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
One in six

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e2:o4:1
# text = One in six
1	One	one	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	0	root	_	_
2	in	in	ADP	IN	_	3	case	_	_
3	six	six	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	1	nmod	_	_
```

<!-- .note -->
The frames reader finds no event or fact in this sentence.

<!-- div src -->

**Text:** the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (`world/data/school/`), as the course runner gave them to the student. **Trees:** Mova's own parse — the `en` model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. **Frames:** Mova's frames reader (`prag`), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

<!-- /div -->

<!-- pn -->
- ← previous: ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy, exam 1](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e1/)
- next →: ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy, exam 3](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e3/)
- ↑ back to ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/)