---
title: Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning… — "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy · tree and pragmatics
description: Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning the selection 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in a lottery draw. Exam question 3 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, with the dependency tree and pragmatics of the question and of e
---

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# Exam question 3 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning the selection 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in a lottery draw.

<!-- .vintro -->
**Mova's choice:** option 1 · **The right answer:** option 2 · wrong ✗ · **Who acts:** you, established facts · **What happens:** select, establish, concern · **To what, where:** response, selection

<!-- .vabout -->
This is exam question 3 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, asked in stiff, formal language. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: [the test at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/#e3).

## The question {#question}

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e3:1
# text = Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning the selection 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in a lottery draw.
1	Select	select	VERB	VB	Mood=Imp|VerbForm=Fin	0	root	_	_
2	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	3	det	_	_
3	response	response	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	1	obj	_	_
4	consistent	consistent	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	1	xcomp	_	_
5	with	with	ADP	IN	_	8	case	_	_
6	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	8	det	_	_
7	established	establish	VERB	VBN	Tense=Past|VerbForm=Part|Voice=Pass	8	amod	_	_
8	facts	fact	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	obl	_	_
9	concerning	concern	VERB	VBG	VerbForm=Ger	8	acl	_	_
10	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	11	det	_	_
11	selection	selection	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	9	obj	_	_
12	1	1	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	11	flat	_	SpaceAfter=No
13	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	14	punct	_	_
14	2	2	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	12	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
15	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	16	punct	_	_
16	3	3	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	12	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
17	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	18	punct	_	_
18	4	4	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	12	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
19	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	20	punct	_	_
20	5	5	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	12	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
21	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	22	punct	_	_
22	6	6	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	12	conj	_	_
23	in	in	ADP	IN	_	26	case	_	_
24	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	26	det	_	_
25	lottery	lottery	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	26	compound	_	_
26	draw	draw	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	22	nmod	_	SpaceAfter=No
27	.	.	PUNCT	.	_	1	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **select** | imperative | you *not said here* | the response |  |  |  | consistent *property* | vn obtain-13.5.2 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent response=Theme |
| 2 | **establish** | participle |  |  |  |  |  |  | vn indicate-78-1-1 «NP V NP to be NP»: agent=Pivot |
| 3 | **concern** | gerund | the established facts *not said here* | the selection |  |  |  |  | vn amuse-31.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Stimulus selection=Experiencer |

<!-- .note -->
One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

## The options {#options}

### Option 1 · ← Mova's choice {#o1}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
It is more probable than any other selection

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e3:o1:1
# text = It is more probable than any other selection
1	It	it	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Gender=Neut|Number=Sing|Person=3|PronType=Prs	4	nsubj	_	_
2	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	4	cop	_	_
3	more	more	ADV	RBR	Degree=Cmp	4	advmod	_	_
4	probable	probable	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
5	than	than	ADP	IN	_	8	case	_	_
6	any	any	DET	DT	PronType=Ind	8	det	_	_
7	other	other	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	8	amod	_	_
8	selection	selection	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	obl	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present | It |  |  |  |  | than any other selection; probable *property* | tree rules |

### Option 2 · ✓ the right answer {#o2}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
It is exactly as probable as any other selection of six numbers

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e3:o2:1
# text = It is exactly as probable as any other selection of six numbers
1	It	it	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Gender=Neut|Number=Sing|Person=3|PronType=Prs	5	nsubj	_	_
2	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	5	cop	_	_
3	exactly	exactly	ADV	RB	_	5	advmod	_	_
4	as	as	ADV	RB	_	5	advmod	_	_
5	probable	probable	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
6	as	as	ADP	IN	_	9	case	_	_
7	any	any	DET	DT	PronType=Ind	9	det	_	_
8	other	other	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	9	amod	_	_
9	selection	selection	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	5	obl	_	_
10	of	of	ADP	IN	_	12	case	_	_
11	six	six	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	12	nummod	_	_
12	numbers	number	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	9	nmod	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present | It |  |  |  |  | as any other selection of six numbers; exactly, probable *property* | tree rules |
| 2 | **select** |  |  | six numbers |  |  |  |  | nom selection «act transitive»: of=patient |

### Option 3 {#o3}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
It is impossible in any properly conducted draw

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e3:o3:1
# text = It is impossible in any properly conducted draw
1	It	it	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Gender=Neut|Number=Sing|Person=3|PronType=Prs	3	expl	_	_
2	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	3	cop	_	_
3	impossible	impossible	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
4	in	in	ADP	IN	_	8	case	_	_
5	any	any	DET	DT	PronType=Ind	8	det	_	_
6	properly	properly	ADV	RB	_	7	advmod	_	_
7	conducted	conduct	VERB	VBN	Tense=Past|VerbForm=Part|Voice=Pass	8	amod	_	_
8	draw	draw	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	3	obl	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present |  |  |  | any conducted draw |  | impossible *property* | tree rules |
| 2 | **conduct** | participle |  |  |  |  |  | properly *property* | vn accompany-51.7 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent |

### Option 4 {#o4}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
It is less probable than a random-appearing selection

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:e3:o4:1
# text = It is less probable than a random-appearing selection
1	It	it	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Gender=Neut|Number=Sing|Person=3|PronType=Prs	4	nsubj	_	_
2	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	4	cop	_	_
3	less	less	ADV	RBR	Degree=Cmp	4	advmod	_	_
4	probable	probable	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
5	than	than	ADP	IN	_	10	case	_	_
6	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	10	det	_	_
7	random	random	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	9	amod	_	SpaceAfter=No
8	-	-	PUNCT	HYPH	_	7	punct	_	SpaceAfter=No
9	appearing	appear	VERB	VBG	VerbForm=Ger	10	amod	_	_
10	selection	selection	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	obl	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present | It |  |  |  |  | than a appearing selection; less, probable *property* | tree rules |
| 2 | **appear** | gerund |  |  |  |  |  |  | vn appear-48.1.1 «NP V»: agent=Theme |

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**Text:** the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (`world/data/school/`), as the course runner gave them to the student. **Trees:** Mova's own parse — the `en` model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. **Frames:** Mova's frames reader (`prag`), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

<!-- /div -->

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