---
title: What would happen if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times? — "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy · tree and pragmatics
description: What would happen if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times? Test 11 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, with the dependency tree and pragmatics of the question and of each option; Mova's choice was wrong.
---

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# Test 11 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
What would happen if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times?

<!-- .vintro -->
**Mova's choice:** option 3 · **The right answer:** option 2 · wrong ✗ · **Who acts:** you · **What happens:** happen, flip · **To what, where:** fair coin

<!-- .vabout -->
This is test 11 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: [the test at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/#t11).

## The question {#question}

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t11:1
# text = What would happen if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times?
1	What	what	PRON	WP	PronType=Int	3	nsubj	_	_
2	would	would	AUX	MD	VerbForm=Fin	3	aux	_	_
3	happen	happen	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	0	root	_	_
4	if	if	SCONJ	IN	_	6	mark	_	_
5	you	you	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Person=2|PronType=Prs	6	nsubj	_	_
6	flipped	flip	VERB	VBD	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=2|Tense=Past|VerbForm=Fin	3	advcl	_	_
7	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	9	det	_	_
8	fair	fair	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	9	amod	_	_
9	coin	coin	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	6	obj	_	_
10	10,000	10000	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	11	nummod	_	_
11	times	time	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	6	obl:unmarked	_	SpaceAfter=No
12	?	?	PUNCT	.	_	3	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **happen** | would |  |  |  |  |  |  | vn occur-48.3-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme |
| 2 | **flip** *a condition, not said to happen* | past | you | a fair coin |  |  | time |  | vn throw-17.1-1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent coin=Theme |

<!-- .note -->
One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

## The options {#options}

### Option 1 {#o1}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
The coin would wear out and land heads

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t11:o1:1
# text = The coin would wear out and land heads
1	The	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	2	det	_	_
2	coin	coin	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	nsubj	_	_
3	would	would	AUX	MD	VerbForm=Fin	4	aux	_	_
4	wear	wear	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	0	root	_	_
5	out	out	ADP	RP	_	4	compound:prt	_	_
6	and	and	CCONJ	CC	_	8	cc	_	_
7	land	land	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	8	compound	_	_
8	heads	head	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	conj	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **wear out** | would | the coin |  |  |  |  |  | vn wipe\_manner-10.4.1-1 «NP V PP-Conative»: agent=Agent |

### Option 2 · ✓ the right answer {#o2}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Heads and tails would come out roughly even, without any "catching up"

<!-- fold The tree, 12 words -->
```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t11:o2:1
# text = Heads and tails would come out roughly even, without any "catching up"
1	Heads	head	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	5	nsubj	_	_
2	and	and	CCONJ	CC	_	3	cc	_	_
3	tails	tail	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	1	conj	_	_
4	would	would	AUX	MD	VerbForm=Fin	5	aux	_	_
5	come	come	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	0	root	_	_
6	out	out	ADV	RB	_	5	advmod	_	_
7	roughly	roughly	ADV	RB	_	8	advmod	_	_
8	even	even	ADV	RB	_	5	advmod	_	SpaceAfter=No
9	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	13	punct	_	_
10	without	without	SCONJ	IN	_	13	mark	_	_
11	any	any	DET	DT	PronType=Ind	13	nsubj	_	_
12	"	"	PUNCT	``	_	13	punct	_	SpaceAfter=No
13	catching	catch	VERB	VBG	Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Part	5	advcl	_	_
14	up	up	ADP	RP	_	13	compound:prt	_	SpaceAfter=No
15	"	"	PUNCT	''	_	13	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **come out** | would | Heads and tails |  |  |  |  | out *property* | vn become-109.1 «NP V ADJ»: agent=Patient |
| 2 | **catch up** *in a quote* | gerund | any |  |  |  |  |  | vn get-13.5.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent |

### Option 3 · ← Mova's choice {#o3}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Tails would always follow a run of heads

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t11:o3:1
# text = Tails would always follow a run of heads
1	Tails	tail	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	nsubj	_	_
2	would	would	AUX	MD	VerbForm=Fin	4	aux	_	_
3	always	always	ADV	RB	PronType=Tot	4	advmod	_	_
4	follow	follow	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	0	root	_	_
5	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	6	det	_	_
6	run	run	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	obj	_	_
7	of	of	ADP	IN	_	8	case	_	_
8	heads	head	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	6	nmod	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **follow** | would | Tails | a run of heads |  |  |  | always *property* | vn chase-51.6 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent run=Theme |
| 2 | **run** |  |  | heads |  |  |  |  | nom run «act transitive»: of=patient |

### Option 4 {#o4}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Heads and tails would come out exactly 5,000 each

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t11:o4:1
# text = Heads and tails would come out exactly 5,000 each
1	Heads	head	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	5	nsubj	_	_
2	and	and	CCONJ	CC	_	3	cc	_	_
3	tails	tail	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	1	conj	_	_
4	would	would	AUX	MD	VerbForm=Fin	5	aux	_	_
5	come	come	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	0	root	_	_
6	out	out	ADV	RB	_	5	advmod	_	_
7	exactly	exactly	ADV	RB	_	8	advmod	_	_
8	5,000	5000	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	obl	_	_
9	each	each	DET	DT	PronType=Tot	8	advmod	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **come out** | would | Heads and tails | 5,000 |  |  |  | out *property* | vn become-109.1 «NP V ADJ»: agent=Patient |

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**Text:** the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (`world/data/school/`), as the course runner gave them to the student. **Trees:** Mova's own parse — the `en` model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. **Frames:** Mova's frames reader (`prag`), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

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- ↑ back to ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/)