---
title: Sister: "And 7, 19, 23, 31, 40, 44 is more likely because it looks r… — "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy · tree and pragmatics
description: Sister: "And 7, 19, 23, 31, 40, 44 is more likely because it looks random? It's all numbers on balls." Which is true? Test 6 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school, with the dependency tree and pragmatics of the question and of each option
---

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# Test 6 · "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Sister: "And 7, 19, 23, 31, 40, 44 is more likely because it looks random? It's all numbers on balls." Which is true?

<!-- .vintro -->
**Mova's choice:** option 1 · **The right answer:** option 3 · wrong ✗ · **Who acts:** Sister, it · **What happens:** be, look · **To what, where:** numbers, balls

<!-- .vabout -->
This is test 6 of lesson 171 «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives the question's syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause, then the 4 options as the student saw them, each with its tree and pragmatics. Every text is parsed by Mova itself. How the student answered it, with the score of every option and why: [the test at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/#t6).

## The question {#question}

<!-- .note -->
*Sentence 1:* Sister: "And 7, 19, 23, 31, 40, 44 is more likely because it looks random?

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:1
# text = Sister: "And 7, 19, 23, 31, 40, 44 is more likely because it looks random?
1	Sister	sister	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	18	nsubj:outer	_	SpaceAfter=No
2	:	:	PUNCT	:	_	1	punct	_	_
3	"	"	PUNCT	``	_	18	punct	_	SpaceAfter=No
4	And	and	CCONJ	CC	_	18	cc	_	_
5	7	7	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	18	nsubj	_	SpaceAfter=No
6	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	7	punct	_	_
7	19	19	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
8	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	9	punct	_	_
9	23	23	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
10	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	11	punct	_	_
11	31	31	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
12	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	13	punct	_	_
13	40	40	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	conj	_	SpaceAfter=No
14	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	15	punct	_	_
15	44	44	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	conj	_	_
16	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	18	cop	_	_
17	more	more	ADV	RBR	Degree=Cmp	18	advmod	_	_
18	likely	likely	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
19	because	because	SCONJ	IN	_	21	mark	_	_
20	it	it	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Gender=Neut|Number=Sing|Person=3|PronType=Prs	21	nsubj	_	_
21	looks	look	VERB	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	18	ccomp	_	_
22	random	random	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	21	xcomp	_	SpaceAfter=No
23	?	?	PUNCT	.	_	18	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** *in a quote* | present | Sister |  |  |  |  | likely *property* | tree rules |
| 2 | **look** *in a quote* | present | it |  |  |  |  | random *property* | vn stimulus\_subject-30.4 «NP V ADJ»: agent=Stimulus |

<!-- .note -->
One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

<!-- .note -->
*Sentence 2:* It's all numbers on balls."

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:2
# text = It's all numbers on balls."
1	It	it	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Gender=Neut|Number=Sing|Person=3|PronType=Prs	4	nsubj	_	SpaceAfter=No
2	's	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	4	cop	_	_
3	all	all	ADV	RB	_	4	advmod	_	_
4	numbers	number	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	0	root	_	_
5	on	on	ADP	IN	_	6	case	_	_
6	balls	ball	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	nmod	_	SpaceAfter=No
7	.	.	PUNCT	.	_	4	punct	_	SpaceAfter=No
8	"	"	PUNCT	''	_	4	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is a** | present | It | numbers |  | balls |  | all *property* | tree rules |

<!-- .note -->
*Sentence 3:* Which is true?

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:3
# text = Which is true?
1	Which	which	PRON	WDT	PronType=Rel	3	nsubj	_	_
2	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	3	cop	_	_
3	true	true	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	SpaceAfter=No
4	?	?	PUNCT	.	_	3	punct	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present |  |  |  |  |  | true *property* | tree rules |

## The options {#options}

### Option 1 · ← Mova's choice {#o1}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
The random-looking set is more likely

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:o1:1
# text = The random-looking set is more likely
1	The	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	5	det	_	_
2	random	random	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	4	compound	_	SpaceAfter=No
3	-	-	PUNCT	HYPH	_	2	punct	_	SpaceAfter=No
4	looking	look	VERB	VBG	VerbForm=Ger	5	amod	_	_
5	set	set	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	8	nsubj	_	_
6	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	8	cop	_	_
7	more	more	ADV	RBR	Degree=Cmp	8	advmod	_	_
8	likely	likely	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **look** | gerund |  |  |  |  |  |  | vn stimulus\_subject-30.4 «NP V PP.attribute»: agent=Stimulus |
| 2 | **is** | present | the looking set |  |  |  |  | likely *property* | tree rules |

### Option 2 {#o2}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
The 1 to 6 set is more likely

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:o2:1
# text = The 1 to 6 set is more likely
1	The	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	5	det	_	_
2	1	1	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	5	nummod	_	_
3	to	to	ADP	IN	_	4	case	_	_
4	6	6	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	2	nmod	_	_
5	set	set	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	8	nsubj	_	_
6	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	8	cop	_	_
7	more	more	ADV	RBR	Degree=Cmp	8	advmod	_	_
8	likely	likely	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present | the 1 set |  |  |  |  | likely *property* | tree rules |

### Option 3 · ✓ the right answer {#o3}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Both sets are exactly as likely

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:o3:1
# text = Both sets are exactly as likely
1	Both	both	DET	DT	PronType=Tot	2	det	_	_
2	sets	set	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	6	nsubj	_	_
3	are	be	AUX	VBP	Mood=Ind|Number=Plur|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	6	cop	_	_
4	exactly	exactly	ADV	RB	_	6	advmod	_	_
5	as	as	ADV	RB	_	6	advmod	_	_
6	likely	likely	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	0	root	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **is** | present | both sets |  |  |  |  | exactly, likely *property* | tree rules |

### Option 4 {#o4}

<!-- .ven lang=en -->
Neither set can ever come up

```conllu
# sent_id = question:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy:t6:o4:1
# text = Neither set can ever come up
1	Neither	neither	DET	DT	PronType=Neg	2	det	_	_
2	set	set	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	5	nsubj	_	_
3	can	can	AUX	MD	VerbForm=Fin	5	aux	_	_
4	ever	ever	ADV	RB	PronType=Ind	5	advmod	_	_
5	come	come	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	0	root	_	_
6	up	up	ADV	RB	_	5	advmod	_	_
```

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **come up** | can | neither set |  |  |  | ever |  | vn escape-51.1-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme |

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**Text:** the tests of Mova's primary school, written for Mova (`world/data/school/`), as the course runner gave them to the student. **Trees:** Mova's own parse — the `en` model on the CPU, when the site is built — not checked by a teacher; they may be wrong. **Frames:** Mova's frames reader (`prag`), each text read on its own. Elamur Cosmic License.

<!-- /div -->

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