--- title: "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy — a lesson of Mova's school · trees and pragmatics description: «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy», a lesson of the world course of Mova's primary school, sentence by sentence with dependency trees and pragmatics. It begins: Jayden and his mate flip a coin for the last slice of pizza. --- [Mova](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) · [this page in HTML](https://mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/) [home](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) / [corpora](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/) / [school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/) / [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/) / "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy # "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy Lesson 171 of the world course of Mova's primary school: 26 sentences, each with its syntax tree and pragmatics. The lessons are written for Mova, and their agreed trees are part of Mova corpus 0.4 (CC BY-SA 4.0). How Mova does on its tests: [the lesson at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/). - [0](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/0/) — Jayden and his mate flip a coin for the last slice of pizza. - [1](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/1/) — It lands heads five times in a row. - [2](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/2/) — "Tails is DUE now, it has to be!" But the coin has no memory. - [3](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/3/) — On the next flip the chance of tails is still 1 in 2, exactly as it was on the first flip. - [4](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/4/) — Thinking a result is "due" because it hasn't come up for a while is called the gambler's fallacy. - [5](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/5/) — Dice don't save up sixes, lottery balls don't remember your numbers, scratch cards don't fill up a winning bar, and the weather doesn't take turns. - [6](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/6/) — In a game of skill it is different again: losing eight Mario Kart races in a row doesn't make you "due" a win; it usually means the other player is better. - [7](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/7/) — Winning four quizzes in a row usually means your team knows stuff. - [8](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/8/) — Practice changes your chances; a losing streak does not. - [9](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/9/) — Some games are made so most people lose: coconut shies are hard on purpose, some claw machines can be set to grip weakly, and lotteries pay back less than people spend. - [10](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/10/) — That is how they make money. - [11](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/11/) — The mickey-taking hits the "due" idea: "The coin doesn't know, bro. - [12](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/12/) — It's not keeping a diary. - [13](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/13/) — It's a coin." - [14](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/14/) — The gambler's fallacy is thinking a result is "due" because it hasn't happened for a while. - [15](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/15/) — A fair coin has a 1 in 2 chance of tails on every flip, whatever came before; over thousands of flips heads and tails roughly even out, but not because the coin "catches up". - [16](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/16/) — On a fair dice each number has a 1 in 6 chance on every roll. - [17](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/17/) — In the UK's main Lotto the chance of the jackpot is about 1 in 45 million for each ticket, every single draw, however long you have waited. - [18](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/18/) — Every set of six lottery numbers, including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, is exactly as likely as any other set. - [19](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/19/) — In a game of skill, a long losing or winning streak usually tells you about skill, not about luck being "due". - [20](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/20/) — In rock-paper-scissors against a person, people have habits, and a good player can notice them. - [21](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/21/) — Fairground games and many claw machines are made so that most players lose; claw machines can be set by the owner to grip weakly most of the time. - [22](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/22/) — On average people get back less money from scratch cards and lotteries than they spend; that is how lotteries make money. - [23](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/23/) — Weather patterns can last for days or weeks; the best guide to next Saturday is the weather forecast. - [24](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/24/) — Before playing any game that costs money, decide your limit and stop when you reach it. - [25](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/25/) — Words people use: "mate" and "bro" mean friend, "lowkey" means a bit, "Nostradamus" is a joke name for someone who thinks they can tell the future (after a famous fortune-teller from long ago), "a rota" is a list of whose turn it is, "best of loads" means lots of rounds, and "candyfloss" is cotton candy (US). - ← previous: [The football argument that goes in circles](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/170-the-football-argument-that-goes-in-circles/) - next →: [Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/) - ↑ back to [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/)