---
title: A fair coin has a 1 in 2 chance of tails on every flip, whatever cam… — "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy · tree and pragmatics
description: A fair coin has a 1 in 2 chance of tails on every flip, whatever came before; over thousands of flips heads and tails roughly even out, but not because the coin "catches up". Who acts: fair coin, whatever, coin, tails. A sentence of the lesson «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world co
---

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# "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy, sentence 15

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A fair coin has a 1 in 2 chance of tails on every flip, whatever came before; over thousands of flips heads and tails roughly even out, but not because the coin "catches up".

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**Who acts:** fair coin, whatever, coin, tails · **What happens:** have, come, catch up, chance · **To what, where:** 1 chance

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This is a sentence of the lesson «"I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives its syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause: who acts (fair coin, whatever, coin, tails), what happens, when and where, as Mova's frames read it from the tree.

## The tree {#tree}

```conllu
# sent_id = school:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy.lesson:15
# text = A fair coin has a 1 in 2 chance of tails on every flip, whatever came before; over thousands of flips heads and tails roughly even out, but not because the coin "catches up".
# source = school lesson (ours)
# course = world
# lesson = 171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy.lesson
# annotation = Mova annot: Rust (en) → Haiku 5.5 (medium, Batches API) patches; gates UD 2.18; agreed by treeagree rules (Stanza, Trankit, spaCy trf): R6-punct-agree ×1
1	A	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	3	det	_	_
2	fair	fair	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	3	amod	_	_
3	coin	coin	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	nsubj	_	_
4	has	have	VERB	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	0	root	_	_
5	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	9	det	_	_
6	1	1	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	9	nummod	_	_
7	in	in	ADP	IN	_	8	case	_	_
8	2	2	NUM	CD	NumForm=Digit|NumType=Card	6	nmod	_	_
9	chance	chance	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	obj	_	_
10	of	of	ADP	IN	_	11	case	_	_
11	tails	tail	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	9	nmod	_	_
12	on	on	ADP	IN	_	14	case	_	_
13	every	every	DET	DT	PronType=Tot	14	det	_	_
14	flip	flip	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	11	nmod	_	_
15	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	17	punct	_	_
16	whatever	whatever	PRON	WP	PronType=Rel	17	nsubj	_	_
17	came	come	VERB	VBD	Mood=Ind|Number=Plur|Person=3|Tense=Past|VerbForm=Fin	14	acl:relcl	_	_
18	before	before	ADV	RB	_	17	advmod	_	_
19	;	;	PUNCT	:	_	24	punct	_	_
20	over	over	ADP	IN	_	24	case	_	_
21	thousands	thousand	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	24	compound	_	_
22	of	of	ADP	IN	_	23	case	_	_
23	flips	flip	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	21	nmod	_	_
24	heads	head	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	obj	_	_
25	and	and	CCONJ	CC	_	26	cc	_	_
26	tails	tail	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	24	conj	_	_
27	roughly	roughly	ADV	RB	_	29	advmod	_	_
28	even	even	ADV	RB	_	29	advmod	_	_
29	out	out	ADP	RP	_	24	compound:prt	_	_
30	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	37	punct	_	_
31	but	but	CCONJ	CC	_	37	cc	_	_
32	not	not	PART	RB	Polarity=Neg	35	advmod	_	_
33	because	because	SCONJ	IN	ExtPos=ADP	37	mark	_	_
34	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	35	det	_	_
35	coin	coin	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	37	nsubj	_	_
36	"	"	PUNCT	``	_	37	punct	_	Agree=R6-punct-agree|Haiku=35:punct
37	catches	catch	VERB	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	4	conj	_	_
38	up	up	ADP	RP	_	37	compound:prt	_	_
39	"	"	PUNCT	''	_	37	punct	_	_
40	.	.	PUNCT	.	_	4	punct	_	_
```

## Pragmatics {#pragmatics}

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- form: statement
- act: assert
- voice: narrator
- polarity: none
- teacher: kept the draft

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **have** | present | a fair coin | a 1 chance of tails on every flip |  |  |  |  | tree rules |
| 2 | **come** | past | whatever |  |  |  |  | before *property* | vn escape-51.1-1 «NP V»: agent=Theme |
| 3 | **catch up** *in a quote* | present | the coin |  |  |  |  |  | vn get-13.5.1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent |
| 4 | **chance** |  | tails on every flip |  |  |  |  |  | nom chance «state intransitive»: of=agent |

<!-- .note -->
One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

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**Licence: [CC BY-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/)**, as the whole of Mova corpus 0.4, of which this treebank (the agreed school, `mova-school-agreed-en.conllu`) is part. The lessons were written for Mova's primary school. Sentence `school:world:171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy.lesson:15`.

**The tree:** Mova annot: Rust (en) → Haiku 5.5 (medium, Batches API) patches; gates UD 2.18; agreed by treeagree rules (Stanza, Trankit, spaCy trf): R6-punct-agree ×1. **The frames** are read from the tree by Mova's frames reader (`prag`) when this page is built, the lesson read in order, so a pronoun may be resolved from an earlier sentence.

See the [release 0.4](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/releases/0.4/).

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