--- title: Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost — a lesson of Mova's school · trees and pragmatics description: «Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost», a lesson of the world course of Mova's primary school, sentence by sentence with dependency trees and pragmatics. It begins: In his game, Ollie opens loot boxes (paid surprise boxes with a random prize) for a legendary skin. --- [Mova](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) · [this page in HTML](https://mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/) [home](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) / [corpora](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/) / [school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/) / [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/) / Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost # Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost Lesson 172 of the world course of Mova's primary school: 24 sentences, each with its syntax tree and pragmatics. The lessons are written for Mova, and their agreed trees are part of Mova corpus 0.4 (CC BY-SA 4.0). How Mova does on its tests: [the lesson at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/). - [0](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/0/) — In his game, Ollie opens loot boxes (paid surprise boxes with a random prize) for a legendary skin. - [1](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/1/) — The chance is 1 in 100 per box. - [2](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/2/) — He opens 100 boxes and gets nothing. - [3](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/3/) — "That's impossible! 100 boxes should give me one!" But 1 in 100 is a chance, not a promise. - [4](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/4/) — With a 1 in 100 chance per box, after 100 boxes about two players in three have at least one legendary, and about one in three still have none. - [5](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/5/) — Ollie is unlucky, not cheated, unless the game promised a guarantee. - [6](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/6/) — Sam has spent twenty pounds of birthday money and got nothing good. - [7](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/7/) — "I can't stop now, I've already spent twenty quid." That is the sunk cost trap: the money is gone whatever he does next. - [8](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/8/) — The only real question is whether the next box is worth it. - [9](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/9/) — Other traps hide in boxes too: a "lucky third pack", a "hot streak", "better drops at midnight", a streamer who shows only his best openings, and calling paid chance a "surprise". - [10](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/10/) — Many experts say loot boxes work like gambling. - [11](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/11/) — Siblings take the mickey out of the maths, not the gamer: "It's a 1 percent chance, not a 1 percent promise." - [12](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/12/) — A 1 in 100 chance per box means each box has a small chance; it does not promise one prize in every 100 boxes. - [13](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/13/) — With a 1 in 100 chance, after 100 boxes about two players in three have at least one prize, and about one in three still have none. - [14](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/14/) — The sunk cost fallacy is spending more because you have already spent; money spent is gone whatever you do next. - [15](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/15/) — Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a row don't change the next box's chance, and thinking they do is the hot-hand fallacy. - [16](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/16/) — Each pack or box has the same chance; there is no "lucky third pack". - [17](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/17/) — Videos show the exciting moments; seeing only the winners and not the losers is called survivorship bias. - [18](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/18/) — Games use random number generators (a part of the program that picks by chance), and there is no evidence that the time of day changes the chances; testing it would need hundreds of openings. - [19](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/19/) — Many experts say loot boxes work like gambling, because you pay money for a random chance at a prize, and some countries have rules about them. - [20](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/20/) — Our brains remember disappointments more than good luck; keeping a simple tally shows the real numbers. - [21](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/21/) — In many games, items cannot be sold for real money, so they are worth nothing outside the game. - [22](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/22/) — Some games publish their drop chances, so you can look them up instead of guessing. - [23](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/23/) — Words people use: "drops" are the items a game gives you, "a skin" is a new look for a character, "quid" means pounds (UK money), "galaxy brain" is sarcastic for a silly idea, "a vibe" is a feeling, and "bestie" means best friend. - ← previous: ["I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/) - next →: ["The game is rigged because I lost"](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/173-the-game-is-rigged-because-i-lost/) - ↑ back to [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/)