---
title: Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a ro… — Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost · tree and pragmatics
description: Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a row don't change the next box's chance, and thinking they do is the hot-hand fallacy. Who acts: Random draws, two lucky boxes, boxes, thinking. A sentence of the lesson «Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost» of the world course of Mo
---

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# Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost, sentence 15

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Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a row don't change the next box's chance, and thinking they do is the hot-hand fallacy.

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**Who acts:** Random draws, two lucky boxes, boxes, thinking, next box · **What happens:** come, not change, think, do, be, chance · **To what, where:** clumps, chance, hand fallacy · **Speech:** someone speaks here

<!-- .vabout -->
This is a sentence of the lesson «Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost» of the world course of Mova's primary school. The page gives its syntax tree — a dependency tree in the style of Universal Dependencies — and its pragmatics clause by clause: who acts (Random draws, two lucky boxes, boxes, thinking), what happens, when and where, as Mova's frames read it from the tree.

## The tree {#tree}

```conllu
# sent_id = school:world:172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost.lesson:15
# text = Random draws often come in clumps by chance; two lucky boxes in a row don't change the next box's chance, and thinking they do is the hot-hand fallacy.
# source = school lesson (ours)
# course = world
# lesson = 172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost.lesson
# annotation = Mova annot: Rust (en) → Haiku 5.5 (medium, Batches API) patches; gates UD 2.18; agreed by treeagree rules (Stanza, Trankit, spaCy trf): R5-strong ×1, R6-punct-agree ×1, R8-pos-agree ×1
1	Random	random	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	2	amod	_	_
2	draws	draw	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	nsubj	_	_
3	often	often	ADV	RB	_	4	advmod	_	_
4	come	come	VERB	VBP	Mood=Ind|Number=Plur|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	0	root	_	_
5	in	in	ADP	IN	_	6	case	_	_
6	clumps	clump	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	4	obl	_	_
7	by	by	ADP	IN	_	8	case	_	_
8	chance	chance	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	4	obl	_	_
9	;	;	PUNCT	,	_	18	punct	_	_
10	two	two	NUM	CD	NumForm=Word|NumType=Card	12	nummod	_	_
11	lucky	lucky	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	12	amod	_	_
12	boxes	box	NOUN	NNS	Number=Plur	18	nsubj	_	_
13	in	in	ADP	IN	_	15	case	_	_
14	a	a	DET	DT	Definite=Ind|PronType=Art	15	det	_	_
15	row	row	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	12	nmod	_	_
16	do	do	AUX	VBP	Mood=Ind|Number=Plur|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	18	aux	_	Agree=R8-pos-agree|Haiku=18:aux|HaikuPos=AUX:VB:VerbForm=Inf
17	n't	not	PART	RB	Polarity=Neg	18	advmod	_	_
18	change	change	VERB	VB	VerbForm=Inf	4	parataxis	_	_
19	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	21	det	_	_
20	next	next	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	21	amod	_	_
21	box	box	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	23	nmod:poss	_	_
22	's	's	PART	POS	_	21	case	_	_
23	chance	chance	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	18	obj	_	_
24	,	,	PUNCT	,	_	34	punct	_	Agree=R6-punct-agree|Haiku=26:punct
25	and	and	CCONJ	CC	_	34	cc	_	_
26	thinking	think	VERB	VBG	Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Part	34	csubj	_	_
27	they	they	PRON	PRP	Case=Nom|Number=Plur|Person=3|PronType=Prs	28	nsubj	_	_
28	do	do	VERB	VBP	Mood=Ind|Number=Plur|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	26	ccomp	_	_
29	is	be	AUX	VBZ	Mood=Ind|Number=Sing|Person=3|Tense=Pres|VerbForm=Fin	34	cop	_	_
30	the	the	DET	DT	Definite=Def|PronType=Art	34	det	_	_
31	hot	hot	ADJ	JJ	Degree=Pos	33	amod	_	Agree=R5-strong|Haiku=34:amod
32	-	-	PUNCT	HYPH	_	31	punct	_	_
33	hand	hand	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	34	compound	_	_
34	fallacy	fallacy	NOUN	NN	Number=Sing	18	conj	_	_
35	.	.	PUNCT	.	_	4	punct	_	_
```

## Pragmatics {#pragmatics}

<!-- .note -->
No stored speech act for this sentence.

<!-- .fr -->
| # | verb | tense, mood | who | what, whom | to whom | where | when | other | roles by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **come** | present | Random draws |  |  | clumps |  | by chance; often *property* | vn appear-48.1.1 «NP V PP.location»: agent=Theme in clump=Location |
| 2 | **not** **change** | present · do-support | two lucky boxes in a row | the next box's chance |  |  |  |  | vn dress-41.1.1-1-1 «NP V NP»: agent=Agent chance=Patient |
| 3 | **think** *speech: other* | gerund |  |  |  |  |  |  | vn consider-29.9-2 «NP V how S»: agent=Agent clause=Theme |
| 4 | **do** | present | boxes *= box* |  |  |  |  |  | vn act-114-1 «NP V»: agent=Agent |
| 5 | **is a** | present | thinking | the hand fallacy |  |  |  |  | tree rules |
| 6 | **chance** |  | the next box |  |  |  |  |  | nom chance «state intransitive»: poss=agent |

<!-- .note -->
One row per clause the reader finds. «not said here»: a role filled from the clause above. «roles by»: a VerbNet class and frame when one fits the verb, else the reader's rules on the tree.

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**Licence: [CC BY-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/)**, as the whole of Mova corpus 0.4, of which this treebank (the agreed school, `mova-school-agreed-en.conllu`) is part. The lessons were written for Mova's primary school. Sentence `school:world:172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost.lesson:15`.

**The tree:** Mova annot: Rust (en) → Haiku 5.5 (medium, Batches API) patches; gates UD 2.18; agreed by treeagree rules (Stanza, Trankit, spaCy trf): R5-strong ×1, R6-punct-agree ×1, R8-pos-agree ×1. **The frames** are read from the tree by Mova's frames reader (`prag`) when this page is built, the lesson read in order, so a pronoun may be resolved from an earlier sentence.

See the [release 0.4](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/releases/0.4/).

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