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# Expectations over Unspoken Alternatives Predict Pragmatic Inferences

**Authors:** [Jennifer Hu](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/authors/jennifer-hu/), [Roger Levy](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/authors/roger-levy/), [Judith Degen](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/authors/judith-degen/), [Sebastian Schuster](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/authors/sebastian-schuster/) · **Year:** 2023 · **Venue:** Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics 11, 885–901 **Link:** [aclanthology.org/2023.tacl-1.50](https://aclanthology.org/2023.tacl-1.50/) · **Licence:** [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

[**13** citations](https://openalex.org/works?filter=cites:W4385267227) openalex-snapshot · 2026-10-14[**14** citations in our library](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/cited-by/hu-2023-expectations-over-unspoken-alternatives-predict/) of the 140673 papers whose bibliographies we read[Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics](https://aclanthology.org/volumes/2023.tacl-1/)[licence](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

- [Publisher's page](https://aclanthology.org/2023.tacl-1.50/)
- [PDF](https://aclanthology.org/2023.tacl-1.50.pdf)
- [DOI 10.1162/tacl_a_00579](https://doi.org/10.1162/tacl_a_00579)
- [arXiv 2304.04758](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.04758)
- [OpenAlex](https://openalex.org/W4385267227)

**Authors (4)**

1. [Jennifer Hu](https://openalex.org/A5067533298) [ORCID](https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0021-5699) · [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/author/2112327566) · h 52 · 9247 citations · 339 works
2. [Roger Levy](https://openalex.org/A5090215557) [ORCID](https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4493-8864) · [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/author/50007746) · h 55 · 23036 citations · 343 works
3. [Judith Degen](https://openalex.org/A5054627290) [ORCID](https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2513-0234) · [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/author/38548904) · h 25 · 2033 citations · 229 works
4. [Sebastian Schuster](https://openalex.org/A5018467280) [ORCID](https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8066-0142) · [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/author/145157639) · h 16 · 2524 citations · 48 works

Citations and author metrics from openalex-snapshot (2026-10-14); authors with the same name are not always told apart.

## What it is about

Scalar inferences ("some" implies "not all") vary a lot from one instance to another, and across scales such as "good, excellent". The authors test whether the expectedness of the stronger term, given the context, predicts that variation. They use GPT-2 and BERT surprisal as stand-ins for human predictions. Within "some, all" (Degen 2015, 1363 sentences) the concept-based predictor, a similarity-weighted average surprisal over a fixed set of quantifiers, correlates with human ratings (Pearson −0.432) and stays significant in the full regression (coefficient −0.782, p < 0.001). The raw string-based surprisal does not (coefficient 0.008, p = 0.960). Across 148 scales from four datasets, the concept-based predictor is significant in three of four datasets (for example r = −0.400 for Ronai and Xiang); van Tiel et al.'s data, with the fewest participants, show no effect. The paper argues that alternatives behave as concepts, not as word forms.

## Ideas

- I1. `prag/src/infer.rs`: a scalar-implicature rule for "some" that consults a fixed alternative set (each, every, few, half, much, many, most, all), as the paper does, and uses the expectedness of "all" in the sentence. Replace the language model by counts: the frequency of "X, but not Y" in a corpus the project already holds, computed with BTreeMap counts.
- I2. Weight the alternatives by a deterministic similarity (for example shared lexicon entries) rather than GloVe cosine, and measure whether the weighted score still predicts the paper's ratings.
- I3. Add a world-prior rule for implausible combinations (a movie that both starts and finishes at 2:30), since the paper notes that priors can produce "yes" answers without pragmatic reasoning.

## For Mova

The chapter is [33. Implicature and presupposition](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/languages/en/33-implicature-and-presupposition/) (scalar implicature) and [10. Word classes](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/languages/en/10-word-classes/) (quantifiers). The code is `prag/src/infer.rs` and `prag/src/rsa.rs`. Measures: Spearman correlation between the count-based expectedness score and the paper's published ratings (in the paper's figures), with the random-alternative control; run twice. No neural model is used in Mova; the paper is the source of the finding and of the design.

## Cite

The paper itself, not this card. BibTeX from the library's record of the work. [DOI 10.1162/tacl_a_00579](https://doi.org/10.1162/tacl_a_00579) · [arXiv 2304.04758](https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.04758)

```
@article{hu2023expectations,
  title = {{Expectations over Unspoken Alternatives Predict Pragmatic Inferences}},
  author = {Hu, Jennifer and Levy, Roger and Degen, Judith and Schuster, Sebastian},
  journal = {Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics},
  year = {2023},
  doi = {10.1162/tacl\_a\_00579},
  eprint = {2304.04758},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1162/tacl_a_00579}
}
```

- [← previous Fine-grained Information Status Classification Using Discourse Context-Aware BERT](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/hou-2020-fine-grained-information-status-classification/)
- [next → A fine-grained comparison of pragmatic language understanding in humans and language models](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/hu-2023-fine-grained-comparison-pragmatic-language/)
- [↑ back to English](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/en/)

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