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# Dating ancient manuscripts using radiocarbon and AI-based writing style analysis

**Authors:** Mladen Popović; [Maruf A. Dhali](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/authors/maruf-a-dhali/); [Lambert Schomaker](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/authors/lambert-schomaker/); Johannes van der Plicht; Kaare Lund Rasmussen; Jacopo La Nasa; Ilaria Degano; Maria Perla Colombini; Eibert Tigchelaar · **Year:** 2024 · **Venue:** arXiv:2407.12013 **Link:** [arxiv.org/abs/2407.12013](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12013) · library `langstream-2024-popovic-dating-ancient-manuscripts-using-radiocarbon` · **Licence:** [CC BY-NC-SA 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) (arXiv) — summary only

[**1** citations in our library](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/cited-by/langstream-2024-popovic-dating-ancient-manuscripts-using-radiocarbon/) of the 140673 papers whose bibliographies we readarXiv:2407.12013[licence](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/)

- [Publisher's page](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12013)
- [PDF](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.12013)
- [arXiv 2407.12013](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12013)

**Authors (9)**

1. Mladen Popovic
2. Maruf A. Dhali
3. Lambert Schomaker
4. Johannes van der Plicht
5. Kaare Lund Rasmussen
6. Jacopo La Nasa
7. Ilaria Degano
8. Maria Perla Colombini
9. Eibert Tigchelaar

Citations and author metrics from OpenAlex (); authors with the same name are not always told apart.

## What it is about

The paper tries to date Dead Sea Scrolls by handwriting style. Few manuscripts have calendar dates, so the authors first ran new radiocarbon (14C) measurements on 30 undated manuscripts, of which 26 gave accepted dates, and used 24 of them as training data. The model, named Enoch, takes images of ink traces, binarises them with a neural network, and describes the shapes by two feature sets: a Kohonen-based allographic codebook and an angular "hinge" curvature histogram. After weighting and PCA to 20 dimensions, a Bayesian ridge regression predicts a date distribution. Leave-one-out tests give a mean absolute error of 27.9 to 30.7 years against the 14C ranges. Applied to 135 undated manuscripts, expert palaeographers judged 107 (79.26%) of the predictions realistic. The 14C results are often older than the traditional palaeographic dates, and the authors argue that the Herodian-type script appears earlier than assumed. The authors deliberately avoid deep learning on this small data set, and avoid palaeographic dates as training targets.

## Ideas

- I1. Use leave-one-out on a sparse reference set as the honest test for any date or stage guess. For the layers of Mishnaic or Biblical texts, hold out one text at a time in `treebanks/hbo/ptnk` and report the error in years or stages, not only a pass rate.
- I2. Report the chance baseline next to every accuracy. The paper compares its 79% with the 5% chance of picking the right 25-year bin in a 20-bin range. A Mova stage classifier should print the same kind of baseline, so a number is not read without its base rate.
- I3. Keep the expert check as a labelled sample. The paper's classes (realistic, too old, too young, indecisive) can be reused for a hand check of a random sample of Mova's `world` outputs, with the reason written beside each label.

## For Mova

I1 is a measurement for [11. Mishnaic Hebrew (hbo-x-mishnaic)](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/languages/hbo/11-mishnaic/), run on `treebanks/hbo/ptnk`. I2 is a rule for any report in `tools/hbo` and in the release measurements. I3 is a review procedure for `world`. The paper's image pipeline is neural and is not used.

## Cite

The paper itself, not this card. BibTeX from the library's record of the work. [arXiv 2407.12013](https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12013)

```
@misc{popovic2024dating,
  title = {{Dating ancient manuscripts using radiocarbon and AI-based writing style analysis}},
  author = {Popovic, Mladen and Dhali, Maruf A. and Schomaker, Lambert and Plicht, Johannes van der and Rasmussen, Kaare Lund and Nasa, Jacopo La and Degano, Ilaria and Colombini, Maria Perla and Tigchelaar, Eibert},
  year = {2024},
  eprint = {2407.12013},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12013}
}
```

- [← previous Annotation as a New Paradigm in Research Archiving](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/langstream-2014-roorda-annotation-new-paradigm-research-archiving/)
- [next → An Information-Theoretic Approach to Identifying Formulaic Clusters in Textual Data](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/langstream-2025-yoffe-information-theoretic-approach-identifying-formulaic/)
- [↑ back to Ancient Hebrew](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/docs/papers/hbo/)

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