--- title: "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy — how Mova does on the tests · World description: Lesson 171 of the world course of Mova's primary school: 4 of 11 tests right, exam 1 of 4, every question with the options, the student's choice, the right answer and why it chose. --- [Mova](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) · [this page in HTML](https://mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/) [home](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/) / [at school](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/) / [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/) / 171 # "I'm due a win": the gambler's fallacy **Tests:** 4 of 11 right · **Exam:** 1 of 4 right · **Kind:** plain · **Understood:** 8 of 15 · **Run:** 2026-10-18, commit `f3c23ea72` Lesson 171 of the world course of Mova's primary school, as Mova's small model took its tests: it had read this lesson and the ones before it and learned from their exercises. Each test shows the options in the order the student saw them, its choice, the right answer, the score of every option and why it chose. The lesson itself, sentence by sentence with trees and pragmatics: [the lesson in the corpora](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/school/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/). Every question of this lesson and each of its options parsed by Mova, with trees and pragmatics: [the lesson's questions in the corpora](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/). ### Test 1 · wrong ✗ {#t1} His mate: "The coin doesn't know, bro. It's not keeping a diary. It's a coin." What is he mocking? - **1.** People who keep diaries — **← Mova's choice** · score 1 - **2.** The idea that the coin remembers and must even out — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **3.** Coins for being boring — no support - **4.** Jayden for liking pizza — no support **Why:** It took the question to ask what it is done to. It chose option 1 with score 1, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 171, line 5: «The mickey-taking hits the "due" idea: "The coin doesn't know, bro. It's not keeping a diary. It's a coin."», reached through the remembered sentence the question matched. What matched: the same action «keep» (+4); a different doer (counts against) (+2); it fills the role the question asks for (+1). Against it: the same thing acted on «diary» (-1); one says «not», the other does not (counts against) (-5). The right option, 2, found no support in what it remembers. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t1/) ### Test 2 · right ✓ {#t2} Brother: "Statistically you're due some practice, sis." What is he saying? - **1.** Losing doesn't make a win due; practice would help — **← Mova's choice** · **✓ the right answer** · score 4 - **2.** She should stop playing forever — no support - **3.** Statistics prove that the game is unfair and her brother is cheating — no support - **4.** She is due a win next race — no support **Why:** It took the question to ask what it is done to. It chose option 1 with score 4, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 171, line 3: «In a game of skill it is different again: losing eight Mario Kart races in a row doesn't make you "due" a win; it usually means the other player is better. Win…», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same action «make» (+4). · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t2/) ### Test 3 · right ✓ {#t3} Mum: "The odds are on the coconut's side, Gary. The coconut is winning. Give the boy a candyfloss." What does "candyfloss" mean? - **1.** A fairground prize toy — no support - **2.** A ticket for another throw — no support - **3.** Cotton candy, a fluffy sweet at fairs — **← Mova's choice** · **✓ the right answer** · score 1 - **4.** A type of coconut — no support **Why:** It took the question to ask what it is done to. It chose option 3 with score 1, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 171, line 17: «Words people use: "mate" and "bro" mean friend, "lowkey" means a bit, "Nostradamus" is a joke name for someone who thinks they can tell the future (after a fam…», reached through the remembered sentence the question matched. What matched: the same doer «candyfloss» (+1); it fills the role the question asks for (+1). Against it: the same thing acted on «cotton candy» (-1). · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t3/) ### Test 4 · wrong ✗ {#t4} Grandpa: "The dice has been saving up sixes for you, has it? Like pocket money?" What is the truth he is pointing at? - **1.** Sixes always come after lots of low numbers — no support - **2.** A fair dice has the same chance every roll — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **3.** Dice really do save up their sixes for later — **← Mova's choice** · score 2 - **4.** His dice must be loaded so it never rolls sixes — score 0 **Why:** It took the question to ask what it is done to. It chose option 3 with score 2, against 0 for the next best. Its support: lesson 171, line 2: «Thinking a result is "due" because it hasn't come up for a while is called the gambler's fallacy. Dice don't save up sixes, lottery balls don't remember your n…», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same action «save up» (+4); it fills the role the question asks for (+1). Against it: one says «not», the other does not (counts against) (-3). The right option, 2, found no support in what it remembers. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t4/) ### Test 5 · wrong ✗ {#t5} Kai's aunt: "Bound to come up? The odds are millions to one, Dave. The only thing bound to come up is the bill." What does she mean? - **1.** Dave should buy lots more tickets, so the numbers come up sooner — **← Mova's choice** · score -2 - **2.** Bills are drawn like lottery balls — no support - **3.** The numbers will win next week — no support - **4.** The chance never improves, but the cost keeps adding up — **✓ the right answer** · no support **Why:** It took the question to ask what it is done to. It chose option 1 with score -2, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 171, line 17: «Words people use: "mate" and "bro" mean friend, "lowkey" means a bit, "Nostradamus" is a joke name for someone who thinks they can tell the future (after a fam…», reached through the remembered sentence the question matched. What matched: it fills the role the question asks for (+1). Against it: the same thing acted on «lots» (-1); a different action (counts against) (-2). The right option, 4, found no support in what it remembers. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t5/) ### Test 6 · wrong ✗ {#t6} Sister: "And 7, 19, 23, 31, 40, 44 is more likely because it looks random? It's all numbers on balls." Which is true? - **1.** The random-looking set is more likely — **← Mova's choice** · no support - **2.** The 1 to 6 set is more likely — no support - **3.** Both sets are exactly as likely — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **4.** Neither set can ever come up — no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t6/) ### Test 7 · wrong ✗ {#t7} Friend: "I'm not psychic, I just watched you. You do rock every time you're angry." What does this show? - **1.** Rock-paper-scissors is never fair, because some people can read minds — **← Mova's choice** · no support - **2.** Against a person, habits matter, not just luck — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **3.** Rock is always the worst choice — no support - **4.** His friend can read minds — no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t7/) ### Test 8 · right ✓ {#t8} His mate: "It's not a piggy bank, it's a money-eating robot. Lowkey you just fed it lunch." What is the lesson? - **1.** Machines don't owe you a prize; set a limit first — **← Mova's choice** · **✓ the right answer** · no support - **2.** Feed it lunch money only on Fridays — no support - **3.** Keep going, it must pay out soon — no support - **4.** Claw machines really are piggy banks, so you'll get it all back later — no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t8/) ### Test 9 · wrong ✗ {#t9} Teammate: "We're not due a loss, Lily, we just know stuff. Calm down, Nostradamus." Why "Nostradamus"? - **1.** It is just a fancy old way of saying "very clever" — **← Mova's choice** · no support - **2.** She was acting as if she could see the future — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **3.** She is very good at history and old French names — no support - **4.** It's the name of the quiz they were all playing — no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t9/) ### Test 10 · right ✓ {#t10} His mum: "The clouds don't have a rota, love. Pack your raincoat." What does "the clouds don't have a rota" mean? - **1.** Weather doesn't take turns — **← Mova's choice** · **✓ the right answer** · no support - **2.** Clouds follow a timetable — no support - **3.** Clouds come on Saturdays only — no support - **4.** It will be sunny next time — no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t10/) ### Test 11 · wrong ✗ {#t11} What would happen if you flipped a fair coin 10,000 times? - **1.** The coin would wear out and land heads — score 0 - **2.** Heads and tails would come out roughly even, without any "catching up" — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **3.** Tails would always follow a run of heads — **← Mova's choice** · score 1 - **4.** Heads and tails would come out exactly 5,000 each — no support **Why:** It took the question to ask what happens next. It chose option 3 with score 1, against 0 for the next best. Its support: lesson 171, line 1: «Jayden and his mate flip a coin for the last slice of pizza. It lands heads five times in a row. "Tails is DUE now, it has to be!" But the coin has no memory.…», reached through what followed the sentence the question matched. What matched: the same thing acted on «heads» (+4). Against it: a different doer (counts against) (-1); a different action (counts against) (-2). The right option, 2, found no support in what it remembers. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/t11/) ### Exam question 1 · formal language · right ✓ {#e1} Identify the principal error in the assertion that tails is "due" after five consecutive heads with a fair coin. - **1.** The coin is likely to be weighted — no support - **2.** Five heads constitute an insufficient sample — no support - **3.** The coin retains no memory of prior outcomes — **← Mova's choice** · **✓ the right answer** · score 2 - **4.** Tails cannot occur after heads — no support **Why:** It took the question to ask which statement is true. It chose option 3 with score 2, the only option with support. Its support: lesson 171, line 5: «The mickey-taking hits the "due" idea: "The coin doesn't know, bro. It's not keeping a diary. It's a coin."», reached through the option's own match among the sentences about the question's things. What matched: the same action «keep» (+4); the same doer «coin» (+1). Against it: a different thing acted on (counts against) (-1); one says «not», the other does not (counts against) (-2). · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e1/) ### Exam question 2 · formal language · wrong ✗ {#e2} Ascertain the probability of obtaining a six upon a single roll of a fair die, irrespective of prior rolls. - **1.** One in two — **← Mova's choice** · no support - **2.** Six in six — no support - **3.** One in thirty-six — no support - **4.** One in six — **✓ the right answer** · no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e2/) ### Exam question 3 · formal language · wrong ✗ {#e3} Select the response consistent with the established facts concerning the selection 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in a lottery draw. - **1.** It is more probable than any other selection — **← Mova's choice** · no support - **2.** It is exactly as probable as any other selection of six numbers — **✓ the right answer** · no support - **3.** It is impossible in any properly conducted draw — no support - **4.** It is less probable than a random-appearing selection — no support **Why:** No option found support in what it remembers, so it guessed: it took the first option shown. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e3/) ### Exam question 4 · formal language · wrong ✗ {#e4} Which of the following most accurately characterises the principal means by which lotteries derive revenue? - **1.** The draw is adjusted to favour regular players — no support - **2.** The government guarantees each player's return and recovers it through taxation — **← Mova's choice** · score 6 - **3.** Players receive back, on average, less than they expend — **✓ the right answer** · score 6 - **4.** Players invariably recover their stake — score 6 **Why:** It took the question to ask who or what does it. It chose option 2 with score 6, tied with another option at 6 (the first shown, or the one claiming less beyond what it knows, wins). Its support: lesson 171, line 3: «In a game of skill it is different again: losing eight Mario Kart races in a row doesn't make you "due" a win; it usually means the other player is better. Win…», reached through what was said in the sentence the question matched. What matched: it fills the role the question asks for (+4); the same doer «other player» (+2). The right option, 3, scored 6. · [the question and its options parsed, with trees and pragmatics](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/corpora/questions/world/171-im-due-a-win-the-gamblers-fallacy/e4/) - ← previous: [170. The football argument that goes in circles](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/170-the-football-argument-that-goes-in-circles/) - next →: [172. Loot boxes, streaks and the sunk cost](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/172-loot-boxes-streaks-and-the-sunk-cost/) - ↑ back to [World](https://md.mova.elamur.ai/free/en/school-run/world/)